Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that the situation in Ukraine is changing dramatically, with movement along the entire front line every day. This comes as Moscow’s forces continue to advance in eastern Ukraine, gaining ground more quickly than at any time since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Despite some recent Ukrainian successes, the country appears to be losing, with an estimated million people killed or wounded in the conflict.
As the invasion reaches its third year, the international community is wondering if 2025 could be the year the conflict finally comes to an end. However, with the unpredictable Donald Trump set to take over in the White House, the future of the conflict remains uncertain. Trump has promised to end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, but his intentions are far from clear.
Ukrainian officials are skeptical about the possibility of peace talks, with advisor to the head of President Zelensky’s office Mykhailo Podolyak stating that “there’s a lot of talk about negotiations, but it’s an illusion.” Podolyak believes that Russia has not been made to pay a high enough price for the war, and that no negotiation process can take place until this happens.
Meanwhile, President Zelensky is trying to position himself as a partner for Trump, congratulating him on his election victory and sending senior officials to meet with the president-elect’s team. Zelensky has also unveiled his “Victory Plan,” which includes proposals for joint investments in Ukraine’s natural resources and the possibility of Ukrainian troops replacing US forces in Europe after the war.
However, with Ukraine losing ground on the battlefield, the international debate is focused on shoring up Kyiv’s shaky position. The country’s allies are considering various options, including the deployment of peacekeepers or the involvement of the British-led Joint Expeditionary Force. But without concrete mechanisms for collective defense, observers fear that there will be nothing to prevent another Russian attack.
As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is clear: the cost of the war is mounting, and the strain on Russia’s economy is growing. With interest rates at 23%, inflation running above 9%, and growth expected to slow dramatically in 2025, Putin may yet be driven to the negotiating table. But at what cost, and how much more territory will Ukraine have lost by the time that point is reached?
